KhizooologyHow We Know What Isn't So
Ask what your evidence leaves out.
Big Idea
Gilovich explains how ordinary reasoning can turn incomplete, ambiguous, or socially reinforced evidence into confident but mistaken beliefs.
Patterns in Noise
Random variation can look meaningful when we notice a striking cluster.
Incomplete Samples
A few memorable cases may not represent the larger group or all the times nothing happened.
Expected Answers
Ambiguous evidence can be interpreted in ways that support an existing belief.
Wanted Answers
Hope and personal interest can affect which explanation feels convincing.
Social Agreement
Repeated or widely shared claims are not automatically supported by independent evidence.
- Assess particular findings with current evidence rather than treating every historical example as settled.
Khizooo Take
Alongside evidence for a claim, look for missing comparisons and cases that would have counted against it.
Remember
Count the misses as well as the memorable hits.