The Art of Thinking Clearly
Notice the reasoning error before naming the conclusion.
Big Idea
Dobelli uses short essays to introduce common reasoning errors and encourage more careful everyday decisions.
Selection bias
Visible success stories can hide the many attempts that failed.
Confirmation
Evidence supporting a favored belief can feel easier to notice and accept.
Sunk costs
Money or effort already spent can distract from the best decision now.
Social shortcuts
Popularity and authority can influence judgment without improving the evidence.
A fallible guide
Bias labels are prompts for reflection; they do not automatically settle a disputed decision.
Notooo Take
Before continuing a failing plan, compare future benefits with future costs.
One Thing to Keep
Notice the reasoning error before naming the conclusion.