KhizooologyThinking in Bets
Judge the process as well as the outcome.
Big Idea
Duke separates decision quality from the luck involved in outcomes and encourages reasoning in probabilities.
Results versus process
A favorable result can follow a weak decision, and a sound choice can still fail.
Uncertainty
Expressing confidence as a range leaves room for incomplete information.
Belief updates
New evidence should change a judgment rather than threaten an identity.
Truth-seeking groups
People who welcome disagreement can help test a comfortable assumption.
Decision review
Record what you knew beforehand before hindsight makes an outcome seem obvious.
Notooo Take
Write down your reasoning before an important decision and review it afterward.
One Thing to Keep
Judge the process as well as the outcome.